Well, the offseason is here so I'm going to make an early attempt at an offseason plan for the Jays. Last year I had some success, identifying the Jays needed Chapman/Teo because their offence would struggle. I made some misses as well, as I thought the bullpen would be good enough. I realized the starting pitching needed more depth, but I didn't pick the right starter to replace Rodriguez. I was right about his production, wrong about his replacement, and wrong about who I spent to acquire his replacement.

With that in mind, I thought I'd take a look at what the Jays could do for 2025. I'm going to assume a $230-240M payroll, and I expect around a $190M payroll after arbitration, so I've got $50M or so to spend. Let's start with the offence.

I'll get it out of the way, but right off the bat, Vlad is going to third. Risky? Absolutely. But the odds the Jays can find a better 3B than they can a DH is unlikely. Some of you might be frustrated because it means Clement won't be starting, and I get it. But the Jays issue was a lack of offence, and I don't think Clement helps in this area. He's an overqualified super-sub who will play in virtually every game, but he won't necessarily start. This to me is his ideal role. He should start 4-5 times a week, so he'll be getting a ton of at bats.

Now, Vlad will only play at 3B vs right handed pitching. Horwitz has turned into a pretty great bat - at least vs RHP. But given his struggles vs lefties, I think he needs a platoon partner. And a great fit here could be an unconventional Clement/Horwitz platoon. Vs right handed pitching, Horwitz plays 1B with Vlad at 3B, and vs lefties, Clement can start at third and Vlad can play first. This can also be the defensive late game switch as well, to provide better defence.

At second, I think a Wagner/Jimenez platoon is a great fit as well. Jimenez was significantly better vs lefties, putting up a 138 wRC+ compared to 87 wRC+ vs right handed pitching. Wagner overachieved, certainly, but he had a 344 BA against right hand pitching. Even being conservative and dropping it by 75 points, he would have had a 275/300/417. If I had to guess, that's likely 95-100 wRC+, which is more than good enough for a strong side platoon at second. The Jays can't afford to spend to upgrade every position, but this should give the Jays enough value.

The first signing I'd make is looking toward Anthony Santander. I considered Brent Rooker as a trade option, but I don't know if the Jays have the prospects to move to get him. I'd move virtually anybody, outside of maybe Nimmala, but that's likely who they'd need in return. As for Santander, he's an outfielder who the past 3 years has been 119 wRC+ or better, typically with pretty even splits. He can play either corner spot, but likely is a better fit in right. Position players who aren't star players generally aren't getting more than 3, even 4 years in free agency. So prediction for a contract is: $80M total, 4 years, $20M AAV.

It's hard to balance the payroll and add multiple bats, but one way to do it might be by moving Yariel Rodriguez. He's set to make $7M next season. So a potential trade target here could be Nathaniel Lowe. They were rumoured to be moving him at the last deadline, and it's possible they'd consider moving him in the offseason. With Andrew Heaney a free agent, they could use a potential starting pitcher. If Rodriguez alone isn't enough the Jays could add a prospect, and as a first baseman with limited power I can't imagine it would take any significant prospect. Maybe someone like a Damiano Palmegiani or someone in that tier.

Some of you might disagree with the value of the trade, last year I had access to MLB trade values, this year I don't as it's paywalled, so I can't provide a dollar for dollar breakdown. But I can't imagine the cost would be significantly higher than this, though I could very well be wrong.

Now, Lowe isn't my favourite skillset, low power from a DH/1B position. That being said, he's a pretty safe bet for a 120 wRC+, and he's typically been a solid OBP threat. The Jays need players who can extend innings, and he can absolutely do that. Lowe is projected to make just over $10M, while Rodriguez is around $7M, making this an increase of $3M in the Jays salary. That leaves around $27M to play with. Maybe slightly less.

I don't trust George Springer as a starting outfielder - I've made that pretty clear. Luckily (or should I say, Lukesily?), Nathan Lukes is a cheap, productive outfielder the Jays already have under control. He had a pretty solid debut, walking more than he struck out, and while he likely overachieved a bit, the xStats have him at a 327 xwOBA, which is certainly better than what Springer did last year. So there's no need to spend on this position, and the Jays have a quality in house option to upgrade their lineup. If the Jays had a bigger budget I'd look for another bat, but they can't build a complete team and make critical upgrades at every spot.

At this point, the starting lineup is complete, with the lineup looking something like this:

DH Lowe

SS Bichette

1B Horwitz

3B Guerrero Jr.

LF Santander

2B Wagner

C Kirk

CF Varsho

RF Lukes

There might be a better way to balance it out, and don't forget Clement and Jimenez platooning for Horwitz and Wagner. But that's as solid a lineup as the Jays can get. It looks like league average or better production at every spot.

The bench would include Clement, a cheap backup Catcher (Heineman?), Jimenez, and Springer. I hate spending $30M on Springer to sit on the bench, but it would be worse to have him start, and unless the D-Backs are trading Jordan Montgomery for Springer, I don't see a bad contract swap worth doing.

Now for the pitching. The Jays rotation should have a few guaranteed spots, with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, and Francis. Since I traded Rodriguez, the 5th starter competition is wide open. Jake Bloss is one possible option for the 5th spot. Ricky T is an option, but I don't bet on him staying healthy. Manoah won't be ready for the second half, but he's quality depth. Macko could also be an option as well, but I think he's better suited to start in Buffalo and be a call up for if the Jays have an injury.

Is this my favourite rotation? Not really, but the focus this offseason primarily has to be the bullpen and the lineup, and this is more than good enough to start the season.

WIth the bullpen, I'd argue the only locks are Green, Swanson, and Romano (if healthy). I think I would release Cabrera rather than deal with arbitration, along with Tate, Pop, and Nance. I'd consider giving Little one more shot. So the bullpen would have 4 pitchers in Green, Swanson, Romano, and Little. I think you need to add at least 2, if not 3 high leverage arms, and have one long relief option.

How about starting by bringing back a former Blue Jay? Jeff Hoffman has now had multiple elite seasons in a row, and he is averaging close to 12K/9 the past 2 years. With 2 straight sub 2.50 ERA seasons, he's a perfect fit. Contract prediction: 27/3 (9M AAV).

The Jays could use a lefty reliever, so how about Tanner Scott? Another elite strikeout pitcher, Tanner had a 10K/9 this season along with a 2.92 FIP pitching for 2 teams in 2024. One projection out there for him is $60M/4, so let's go with that and a $15M AAV.

With that, the Jays budget is nearly maxed out. The bullpen now has some combination of Hoffman, Scott, Romano, Green, Swanson, Little. I don't expect Yarbrough to be significantly more than he is now ($3.9M), so he'd be the final addition. For the 8th relief spot, the Jays can have an optionable pitcher on the 40 man roster or a rule 5 pitcher.

The final roster, which is around $240M

Starters: Gausman, Francis, Berrios, Bassitt, Bloss

Bullpen: Scott, Hoffman, Swanson, Romano, Green, Little, Yarbrough, and mystery pitcher (either a rule 5 pitcher, or someone on the 40 man roster, or a cheap reclamation project).

Lineup: Kirk, Horwitz, Wagner, Bichette, Vlad, Santander, Varsho, Lukes, Lowe

Bench: Heineman, Clement, Jimenez, Springer

One thing to watch out for is Varsho's health, as that would change this lineup. If he's expected to miss significant time you'd need to add another outfielder.

The key takeaway from this roster shouldn't be the names necessarily, but the goals for the offseason.

1) Toronto needs multiple high leverage arms. I'd argue at least 2, if not 3.

2) The Jays need to add multiple bats, ideally for the OF and DH, or if Suarez somehow has his option declined sign him and keep Vlad at first. The Jays can't afford to add fewer than 2 above average bats (120 wRC+ or higher), and a third bat who can at worst platoon with Springer.

3) The Jays should be on the lookout for reclamation projects or rule 5 prospects, especially on the pitching end.

Let me know what you think! Would this be good enough to contend? Can the Jays do better? Should I have tried to sign Soto?