Well Banterers, another Blue Jays' season has come and gone without glory. In fine Hollywood fashion, the trailer was more tantalizing than than the movie was good, and each sequel was worse than the last. If we are going to resurrect this franchise, we are going to have to do what Hollywood moguls have done for decades, and remake a classic while pawning it off as a new idea. I present to you a modest proposal: The Atkinstein's Monster Competion.
Linnaea Mallette (Public domain)
BBBanterers have wondered for years about Ross Atkin's approach to roster construction. Why, we have asked, does he insist on gathering so many seemingly redundant parts? Why does he insist that they all play second base and corner outfield? On October 31 our shrewd and ingenious leader will unveil the major pseudo-scientific breakthrough he has been working on since 2016: Atkinstein's Method for Recombining Data.
No other fan base enjoys debating the merits and future contributions of their fringe players like members of BBB. That's why, for a limited time, BBBanterers have the exclusive privilege of beta-testing Atkinstein's Method before it is publicly available. Ross is going to let us each create an Atkinstein Monster of our own using the genetic material of the so-called "Buffalo Boys", and unleash the creature on an unsuspecting MLB next season.
Over the course of the 2025 season, I will apply Atkinstein's Method to compile the MLB statistics for each monster and calculate their fWAR (full rules and methods below). The creator of the monster who wins the MVM award will receive a prize of Internet points, virtual cheez doodles and, of course, bragging rights.
One might say that the second half of the 2024 season is only the trailer to Atkinstein's Monster. For the full movie, tune in to 2025! And let's hope this movie doesn't end with angry villagers bearing torches and pitch forks.
Here are the rules of the pool:
Rule 1: You must take biological material from five of the players listed below (don't think about how) and combine this material in any proportion, so long as each of the five players makes up at least 10% of your completed monster.
For example, you could build:
Player 1 35%
Player 2 25%
Player 3 20%
Player 4 10%
Player 5 10%
The players from whom suitable biological material is available include:
Horwitz
Loperfido
Clement
Schneider
Lukes
Jimenez
Barger
Wagner
Orelvis
Clase
If you absolutely MUST use a player not on the list, because you really feel like Serven Heineman up something different please check in with me first. I'd like to keep the number of players I need to track manageable.
Rule 2: No monster may be made up of the same proportion of the same players as a previously created monster. If duplicate monsters are submitted then priority goes to the earlier submission.
Rule 3: The creator of the second or subsequent duplicate monsters must change at least two components by a minimum of 2% each ie. Increase one player proportion by 2% and decrease another player proportion by the same. In the case where more than one duplicate monster must be changed, they shall be done in the original order of submission. The 10% minimum proportion of each player must be maintained after changes.
Rule 4: The deadline for submission of your creation is October 31 2024. Necessary adjustments because of duplication shall be done as promptly as possible in November.
Rule V(a) : in case of trades, all MLB stats of the players making up your monster will be counted regardless of team.
Rule V (b)(the needless complexity rule): In the unlikely event that an off-season trade occurs where one or more of your players and ONLY your players are traded straight up for one or more players from another team (cash considerations or other non-player throw-ins need not be considered) then you MAY elect to incorporate the player or players received from the trade into your monster in the same total proportion as the outgoing players once occupied. If you elect this option, you must use the same number of incoming players as there were outgoing players unless there are fewer incoming players, in which case you must use all of them. The requirement to use incoming players includes any pitchers, even though pitcher stats will not be counted. Pitchers used must make up a minimum of 5% of your completed monster rather than the minimum of 10% for position players.
Rule 6: Only major league regular season contributions will be considered.
Rule 7: Each of a monster's batting stats will be calculated as follows (I have used the monster above as an example and home runs as the batting statistic):
M_HR = Player1_HR x 1.35 + Player2_HR x 1.25 + Player3_HR x 1.2 + Player4_HR x 1.1 + Player5_HR x 1.1
You might notice that this monster will be approximately twice as good as the average player of whom he is made. The monster is more than the sum of its parts, and this is precisely the power of the Atkinstein Method! By combining the strengths of five Blue Jays we hope to get one player almost as good as Aaron Judge.
Each batting stat will be calculated, and the resulting combined stats will be used to calculate the monster's Batting Runs Above Average.
Each monster's Baserunning Runs Above Average, Fielding Runs Above Average and Positional Adjustment will be calculated directly from Fangraph's calculations for each of the players used to build the monster, instead of going all the way back to the basic stats. (Mathematically speaking, J-74 = Lazy).
Rule 8: Because we will lose some accuracy with these calculations of baserunning and fielding Runs, and because there may only be a small amount of biological material differentiating one monster from another, we can expect scores to be close and possibly more than a few ties. Tiebreakers will be as follows:
1. Batting Runs Above Average. I think we have all come to prefer hitting to defense over the last few years. I also expect more differentiation here because we will be calculating from the basic stats with many decimal points and will have lesser rounding errors than with my lazy man's approach to baserunning and defensive RAA.
2. M_OPS x M_PA
3. Funniest non-rooster animal GIF to be adjudicated by me, J-74.
Rule 9: I will publish my spreadsheet formulas so that all of you folks who are smarter than me can tell me what I'm doing wrong.
Rule 10: Place your monster in the competition by giving your formula in the comments section.
Fangragh WAR calculation is here:
League and season constants are here:
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