Better Know Your Blue Jays 40-man: Orelvis Martinez

Orelvis Martinez is a 22-year-old (younger than I thought) infielder, an international free agent signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2018 for $3.5 million. He’s been near the top of our prospect lists ever since. Well, our prospect lists and everyone’s top 100 lists for MLB prospects. This year, he’s #90 on Baseball America’s list, #89 on MLB’s list, #95 on Baseball Prospectus, and #57 on Keith Law’s list.

Last year he was #3 on our top 40 list. Matt wrote:

That being said, there were some warning flags. His strikeout rate sailed to 25%, which though high was manageable given the power output. The greater concern being that better more experienced pitchers at higher levels would further exploit his tendencies to chase to the point where it threatens viability as an above average/impact bat. His extreme fly ball profile played into the power, but he also had a ton of popups to further exacerbate the feast-or-famine dichotomy.

Those flags and fears were realized in 2022 as Martinez was challenged with an aggressive further jump to Double-A at just 20. The prodigious power again played as Martinez torched 30 home runs, but he hit just .203/.286/.446 in 192 PA for a slightly below league average line. A lot of swing-and-miss drove his strikeout rate to 28.5%. More disconcerting, the .197 BABIP with Vancouver that appeared an small sample aberration was largely repeated at .217. That’s what happens with half of contact goes in the air and a quarter or that is caught by infielders.

But again, he was just 20, when peer aged players were college sophomores. There’s essentially two schools of thought when it comes to balancing glaring flaws against such precociousness. The first is that age is the dominant factor, and the flaws will be mitigated. This is essentially the ZiPS view, which projects that Martinez could be a decent major league hitter in 2022 with a basically similar line, rising to above average in a few years closer to physical maturity.

The second is essentially that despite the age disadvantage, Martinez has been revealed for who he is. When an elite prospect stumbles, the true signal is the stumble, and absent fundamental changes, he’s a fringy bat selling out for power rather than a middle of the order anchor. This could very well by something that only 1,000 MLB at-bats answers, and for now we hedge with a significant risk failure/fringy outcomes, but a (relatively) robust tail of impact outcomes where closing the age/experience gap mitigates the flaws.

Last year was a bounce-back year. He played 125 games split between New Hampshire and Buffalo, hitting .243/.340/.496 in 530 plate appearances, with 28 home runs. He had a 24% strikeout rate with a 13% walk rate.

I’ve been hoping he’ll win a spot on the Jays this year, but maybe I’m a year too early. I think it is more likely he, at least, starts the season in Buffalo. But I am torn. I think that even though he likely needs another year at Triple-A. But I also think I’d rather watch him playing for the Jays one year too early, than to watch IKF at all. I doubt IKF would be more valuable in 500 at-bats than Martinez, and even if Kiner-Falefa was more valuable this year, I think giving Orelvis a year of experience in the majors would be helpful (but then, I do not have to worry about starting his arbitration clock).

But on the side of giving him a shot in the majors, he has two option years left, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get him a look this year.

What position will he end up playing?

Keith Law figures he would be serviceable at short but could be very good at third. The team seems to like him at second. He would be a work-in-progress at any of the spots, but he could be a good defensive player. If it were up to me, I’d make him a third-baseman and leave him there. But then, If it were up to me, several things would be different with the team.

What would he hit in the majors this year?

PECOTA says he’ll play 34 games, hit .216/.287/.384 with 5 home runs (5 home runs in 26 total hits is a pretty good rate),

ZiPS says 130 games (it doesn’t try to guess on playing time), .221/.289/.413, with 23 home runs, 28.4% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate.

Steamer says 23 games, .212/.285/.393, with 4 home runs, 26.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate.