Better Know Your Blue Jays 40-Man: Davis Schneider

Davis Schneider is a 25-year-old right-handed hitting infielder (who has played some left field). He played 35 games for the Jays last year, so he still has his rookie status. He was drafted in the 28th round of the 2017 draft and made steady (if slow) progress up the minor league ladder. When you are a 28th-rounder, you are unlikely to progress up the minor leagues quickly.

Davis was added to the 40-man and active roster in early August of last year, costing Thomas Hatch his 40-man spot and Ernie Clement his spot on the active roster. He hit the ground running, getting 9 hits (2 home runs, 5 RBI) in his first 3 MLB games. Then he went 5 games with just 1 hit.

He followed that with a 9-game hitting streak (.406/.525/1.000 batting line). Some up and downs followed that (including a 9-game hitless streak that he broke out of with 2 hits in our last game of the season.

All in, he hit .276/.404/.603 in his 35 games, with 12 doubles, 1 triple, 8 home runs, 21 walks and 43 strikeouts. The 30.5% strikeout rate was the only less-than-terrific part of his stats. But when you have a 1.008 OPS, we can forgive some strikeouts.

Before the call-up, Schneider hit .275/.416/.553 in 87 games for the Bisons (a huge step up from his .253/.366/.457 (still pretty decent) line across 3 levels in 2022).

Davis didn’t make many prospect lists before last season. In part, it's because 28th-round draft picks don’t get a heck of a lot of respect. In part, it was because he didn’t have a defensive position where he looked like a major league average. Add in that, at the time, he didn’t have any one particular strength to point at:

• No great power; his minor league high was 16 homers before last year.
• No great speed, though he did steal 17 bases in 2022.
• And no terrific batting numbers until last season.

We’ve found out he has power....

He didn’t make the prospect lists, although Matt listed him among his ‘just missed out’ group last year. He said:

Drafted in the 28th round of the 2017 Draft, Schneider has slowly ascended the system. He briefly seemed like a deep sleeper breakout with an explosive start in Bluefield but tailed off after a couple of weeks. He’s had to fight for playing time, posting solid batting lines, but that has steadily improved each year, and in the last couple of years, some power has come in.

There are not any standout tools, which keeps him off the main list, but he’s now in the upper minors, and the production has held up, so he’s of note. He works the count at the plate to draw walks at a very healthy clip, though also striking out at a fair clip as well. He’s moved around a bunch of positions, partly out of necessity to get into lineups, but if the production holds, he could be an offensively oriented utility type. It’s likely a role-player ceiling, but there’s a good chance he will see some major league time in the next couple of years.

Good on you, Matt.

As he still has his rookie status, he’s appearing on some lists this year (and I’d guess ours as well when it comes out). Baseball America has him as our #8th prospect this year. Others have still overlooked him, likely thinking he was no longer a rookie.

Anyway, I’m curious how the team uses him this year. They are giving him time in left this spring, and they could use a right-handed hitting part-time outfielder. He made a terrific catch in left in his first spring game. Third base and second base are still, at least somewhat, up for grabs. He can play either position, not at a Gold Glove level or an MLB average level (though I think he’s ok at third). But obviously, if he hits close to what he did last year, we can put up with a less-than-terrific defence.

But then the odds are somewhere between slim and none that he’ll have a +1.000 OPS next year. (He can be under 1.0 and still have a great offensive season).

Early in spring (and for part of his time in the majors last year) he was having trouble with the high fastball. He had a very slow start to spring, but he's been better in the last few days (as has most of the team). This spring, he’s hitting .200/.310/.480 in 29 PA, with 2 home runs.

So, there are open questions about Davis.

PECOTA figures he’ll play in 111 games, 15 home runs, and a .209/.314/.386 line. I can’t see him playing 111 games if he hits like that.

ZiPS says 119 games, 19 home runs, .230/.333/.430.

Steamer: 73 games, 11 home runs, .231/.338/.415.

So all three think we are going to be disappointed with him. And his 35 games MLB games aren’t a significant sample size. But I’m still taking the over on those batting lines.