Better Know Your Blue Jays 40-man: Alek Manoah

Alek Manoah is a 26-year-old, right-handed pitcher. He was our first-round draft pick (number 11 overall) in 2019. The pick in front of him was Hunter Bishop (who hasn’t made it to the majors yet), and the pick after him was Brett Baty, who has a -1.1 bWAR in 119 games with the Mets. Manoah has the second-best total bWAR from the first rounders that year, trailing just #1 pick Adley Rutschman.

I’m sure you know the story. Alek came up in 2021, had a 3.22 ERA in 20 starts. He finished 8th in Rookie of the Year voting.

2022 was a step better, with a 2.24 ERA in 31 starts, making the All-Star game, finishing 3rd in Cy Young voting and 17th in MVP voting.

The future looked bright.

Then came 2023, a 5.87 ERA, cast out to Buffalo twice. Add in some complaints about how he was treated by the team and by the team’s medical staff and questions if his second trip to the minors was motivated by saving money on his future contracts. And suggestions that he was injured (he ended up getting ‘multiple’ injections into his right arm by doctors not employed by the Blue Jays).

Manoah’s velocity was down a bit last year, but he had big-time troubles when he fell behind in the count. Batters hit .271/.530/.505 after he fell behind in the count.

This season is an important one for Alek. He came to camp lighter than last year and in better shape. And then? His first outing of the spring was a disaster: 1.2 innings, 3 hits (2 hard-hit doubles), 3 hit batters, 1 walk and 4 earned. I guess the one good sign was that he was hitting 94-95.5 mph on his fastball (as well as every third batter he faced).

Since then? Well, there is the report of a sore shoulder, and he is shut down for at least a few days. The last thing he needs is to fall behind this spring and end up trying to play catch up.

Alek makes it difficult for projection systems. Do you take last season as a one-off fluke? Or is that the new level for Manoah?

PECOTA has him making 19 starts, with a 4.97 ERA (with 9 HBP).

ZiPS has him making 23 starts, with a 4.47 ERA (and 12 HBP).

Steamer has him making 23 starts, with 4.71 ERA (and 9 HBP).