2024 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 33-36

The next segment of the Blue Jays Top 40 features a collection of arms in the lower minors with varied styles and strengths.

2024: Full List and Index | 33-36 | 37-40

2023: Full List and Index | 1-4 | 5-8 | 9-12 | 13-16 | 17-20 | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40

Beyond the Top 40: Just Missed | Top 5 Older | Pref Lists: Matt | Tom

36. Lazaro Estrada, RHP, age 25 in 2024 (DOB: 4/24/1999), grade: 35, 2023: Matt’s pref list

Estrada made a strong debut after signing out of Cuba as a 19 year old back in 2019, racking up 87 strikeouts to 12 walks in 70 innings. Progress stalled there for a long time, though. His 2019 season was limited to 47 innings due to injuries, the minor leagues were cancelled in 2020, and Tommy John surgery ate up most of his 2021 and 2022.

The soon-to-be-25 year old was back in Dunedin last year for his third go round, and finally managed to put together a healthy season, throwing 76.1 innings across 28 appearances. He began in the bullpen, but as his strength returned he worked his way into the rotation and succeeded there, striking out 49 of 154 batters while walking 15 and recording a 2.54 ERA from July on.

There are three pitches in Estrada’s arsenal. The fastball is a four seamer that’s not hard, sitting 91-94, but has nice vertical ride and horizontal run. His changeup is rarely used and doesn’t have impressive shape, but it does sit 10mph off his fastball and can get some chases. In the past, his breaking ball has been the star of his arsenal. Before 2023, it was a curveball that he could occasionally snap off with spin rates up to an elite 3,400 RPM. This year the curve was replaced with a slow slider. He still spins it at around 2,700 RPM, which would be in about the 90th percentile in MLB, but in a couple of looks this year the movement wasn’t as impressive as that would suggest. Estrada’s command is solid and seems likely to end up average.

Estrada profiles mostly as a reliever, with only one pitch that looks like it has the potential to be a difference maker in MLB and a spotty track record of durability, but he’s performed so far and the breaking ball bears watching. At 25 and rule 5 eligible, he’ll need to move this year to have a hope of reaching Toronto.

35. Ryan Jennings, RHP, age 24/25 (DOB: 6/23/1999), grade: 35, 2023: unranked

At Louisiana Tech, Jennings began his career as a starter before moving to the bullpen later in his draft year. He touched 99-mph in that role, which popped him up draft boards and prompted the Jays to grab him in the fourth round of 2022.

Jennings pitched in A ball after being drafted and returned there in early 2023 before a June promotion to Vancouver. He made just two appearances there before being shut down with an injury that cost him three months. He returned for a two inning cameo in September and made a couple of appearances in major league spring training this year.

Jennings has pitched in a hybrid role for the Jays, mixing short outings with starts that last 4+ innings. His velocity has trended down since signing, and last summer he was mostly 92-94 and occasional 96s, with heavy arm side run and some sink. He seems to tinker with his breaking ball, which can be anything from an 82mph curve to an 88mph cutter. The best version, which he’s been throwing this spring, is a mid 80s slider with nice vertical depth that could be a weapon. He also had a changeup, but it’s a distant third pitch. Although his walk totals as a pro haven’t been awful, Jennings’ command likely isn’t good enough to start as he moves up the ladder.

As he was in 2023, Jennings looks pretty generic. He’s on the list because he’s demonstrated the potential for two pitches that could be real weapons in a major league bullpen, but to get there he’ll have to stay healthy and ideally recover some of his lost velocity.

34. Connor O’Halloran, LHP, age 21 (DOB: 9/1/2002), grade: 35, 2023: college junior

O’Halloran was a workhorse his sophomore and junior years for Michigan, racking up a Big Ten leading 196 combined innings. While the results weren’t overwhelming, he struck out more than a batter an inning and limited walks, especially in 2023. It was enough to get him picked in the fifth round for a slightly under slot bonus.

It’s not overpowering stuff, although all three of O’Halloran’s pitches show some potential. His fastball is mostly 89-91, touching 94, with some vertical ride out of a lower slot that might help it play up. His slider records big spin numbers and is his out pitch, the only one of the three that projects above MLB average. He also mixes in a change that he has some feel for but which requires further development. His command of all three is above average.

It’s not a thrilling profile, but O’Halloran has a track record against solid competition and all the ingredients are there for a back end starter. If pro development can add a tick to his fastball there might be a little more than that.

33. Rafael Sanchez, RHP, age 24 (DOB: 8/22/1999), grade: 35, 2023: Matt’s pref list

Signed out of Cuba in the winter of 2022, Sanchez has just completed his second American pro season. His first was mostly spent at the Dominican complex, with a brief cameo in Florida at the end of the year. He picked back up with A Dunedin last spring before earning a promotion to A+ Vancouver in May.

It was a solid overall season. Sanchez made a full 23 starts and logged 114 innings, second in the Jays’ system. He dominated the FSL, recording 43 Ks in 35.2 innings, and while the results backed up a bit in the Northwest League, his 76:23 K:BB ratio was still good although a .371 BABIP against ballooned his ERA over 5.00.

Sanchez uses three pitches. His fastball sits between 91 and 94, with a little bit of life. It’s a fringe average pitch and he actually throws it less than his changeup. The cambio comes in around 86, lacking velocity separation from his fastball but packing plus depth that produces the bulk of his swings and misses. His breaking ball varies from 82-87, and StatCast divides it into a slider and a cutter. Having watched, I suspect it’s one pitch that he sometimes executes better than others. Either way it’s not great, with middling movement. Sanches hits his spots, consistently limiting walks, and his command should be average or better.

Like O’Halloran and Estrada behind him, Sanchez has just one pitch that looks like it could make an impact in the majors, but he also has the command to start and like O’Halloran his track record of taking the mound once a week is strong. He has the potential to become a back end starter if he can add a tick to the heater and/or find a more distinctive breaking ball. He’ll head into the upper minors this year and we’ll learn more about how his stuff fares against advanced hitters.