2024 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 29-32

The Top 40 of the Toronto Blue Jays farm system picks up with one more nearer-term pitcher, before moving to some lower level positional players looking to rebound in 2025 for various reasons.

2024: Full List and Index | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40

2023: Full List and Index | 1-4 | 5-8 | 9-12 | 13-16 | 17-20 | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40
Beyond the Top 40: Just Missed | Top 5 Older | Pref Lists: Matt | Tom

32. Trenton Wallace, LHP, age 25 in 2024 (DOB: 3/31/1999), grade: 35, 2023: unranked

Wallace was selected in the 11th round of the 2022 draft out of the University of Iowa, signing for $172,500 (slightly above the post-10th round slot of $150,000). He debuted briefly with Dunedin and missed most of the first month of the 2022 season, but dominated for the next year.

11 shorter outings as he built up in Dunedin yielded a 1.11 ERA with 55 strikeouts against 16 free passes in 40.2 innings and a quick bump-up to high-A. Wallace’s nine starts were good for a 3.66 ERA and another 55 strikeouts in 39.1, though the free passes ballooned to 35. He limited batters to just a hit every other inning. Back to Vancouver in 2023, the control came back in line for a 1.79 ERA and early June promotion to the real testing game. Unfortunately, after two starts he hit the IL until the very end of the season.

The 6’1”, 200 pound lefty pitches throws from a very low, essentially sidearm slot, making for a tough angle on hitters. He’s got a true four pitch mix, his fastball sitting around 90mph, a change-up that gets some late fade, a low-80s slider and mid-70s sweeping curve. They’re all pitches he uses to mix and match and keep hitters off balance.

On one hand, there’s nothing that grades out as plus, and the loud performance has been at the lower levels as opposed to more experiences hitters with an approach against pitchers who can pitch. There’s risk he stalls out in the upper levels on that basis. The future profile is uncertain as well: it’s not obvious there’s the enough start to be a regular in the rotation, and he doesn’t have the couple of big pitches one usually sees in the bullpen. Still, the breadth of solid stuff in the arsenal, left-handedness and angle create a real chance of some sort of major league future.

31. Tucker Toman, IF, age 20 (DOB: 11/12/2003), grade: 35, 2023: 10th

Toman was selected in the second round of the 2022 draft, receiving a $2,000,000 bonus commensurate with a late first round supplemental pick (about 39th overall), to sign him away from LSU. He briefly debuted to a .290/.391/.368 line in 11 complex games.

Offensive potential was the core of the 6’1”, 190 pound switch-hitting infielder’s profile, and considered advanced as the son of a long-time college coach (Jim). Especially from the left side, Toman was lauded for a sweet swing and power. Defensively, opinions ranged from “might stick at SS” to “likely destined for the corner outfield”, making for at least superficial parallels to Bo Bichette’s profile. He was on the older side of the high school draft class.

Toman had a rough go of low-A in 2023, posting a .208/.320/.313 slash line in 503 plate appearances. He struck out 27% of the time while making little good contact, failing to show the pop he has had flashed on the high school showcase circuit. Perhaps a fresh start and reset in 2024 will help matters, and perhaps focusing on hitting from his better side only could help, but it was one of if not the biggest disappointments in the system in 2023.

Last year we noted that it was the far right tail outcomes drives Toman’s expected value, with about 10% of draftees becoming impact regulars and a further 10% producing material value. Though not definitive, the complete lack of offensive production is a strong negative inference for the expectation of achieving those outcomes. That said, some of that pedigree is reserved on the possibility is was a really bad year and he figures it out. If not, he’s likely to fade right off the list next year.

30. Dasan Brown, OF, age 22 (DOB: 9/25/2001), grade: 35, 2023: 24th

The native of Oakville, Ontario was selected by the Jays in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft, bought out of his Texas A&M commitment for an above slot $800,000 bonus. One of the youngest players in his draft class, he epitomized “toolsy” and “raw” with true 80-grade speed to only wreak havoc on the bases, and profile as an impact centrefield defender. What left him available to the Jays were questions about his swing mechanics and ultimately hit tool.

The results in pro ball have been up-and-down. After the 2020 layoff, Brown looked over-matched at low-A, slashing .212/.310/.323 with a 33% strikeout rate. By contrast, 2022 was encouraging first at Dunedin and continuing to produce at high-A after a midseason promotion to Vancouver. Though BABIP-inflated, his .283/.383/.420 combined line worked out to more than 30% above, and while the strikeout rate remained elevated at 28%, it did come in a bit.

Unfortunately, 2023 was a step back, as Brown’s production crated to .218/.309/.315 without the benefit of a very high BABIP. On the positive side, he was a standout in centre with plenty of highlight reel grabs, and one small offensive positive was the strikeout rate coming further in to 25%. The power regressed, but he did show the ability to turn on the odd pitch and punish it.

At this point, one has to evaluate Brown more as what he is than dreaming on what he could be. the 2023 stat-line is likely a touch harsh, but it’s hard to project even a 40-grade hit tool to profile as a regular. His defensive and baserunning abilities still give Brown a real shot at carving out some major league role, but a significant hit to the right tail of the distribution is the major difference from last year and drives the reduced expected value.

29. Adrian Pinto, 2B, age 21 (DOB: 9/22/2002), grade: 35, 2023: 25th

An under-the-radar signing in July 2019 out of Venezuela for $120,000 by the Rockies, the Jays acquired Pinto in the Randal Grichuk/Raimel Tapia deal just one year into his career. And while it was just the DSL and the caverats that entails, what a year it was. In 2021, Pinto posted .360/.486/.543 line with 41 stolen bases in 49 attempts. Notably, he walked 17% of time while striking out just 9%. It was reminiscent of the video game numbers Alejandro Kirk put up in 2018 at Bluefield.

The ascent has stalled the last couple years, as though Pinto moved directly to low-A, a series of injuries has limited him to 87 games and 323 plate appearances for Dunedin. In the fits and starts he has been on the field, the production has been solid if unspectacular, slashing .249/.390/.338, mathematically about 17% above league average. The plate discipline has held up, with 15% walks against 18% strikeouts and ground ball/low-launch angle oriented contact. He swiped 30 bases in 39 tries.

Listed at 5’6” and 156 pounds, Pinto likely isn’t going to end up with more than gap power. The speed and plate discipline add intriguing potential if the hit tool stands up at higher levels. That, in addition to his ability to stay on the field, will determine whether Pinto could be a future regular, or more of a complementary piece.

Given another injury-plagued year with middling production, there’s a small hit to Pinto’s expected value with an increase in the odds of not making it and the ceiling left largely intact but scaled down. Preserving or regaining that ceiling probability going forward however will require staying on the field and producing tangible results.